Elections 2026: Show Me the Money! (Part I)

Contributor: Dr. Leo Kivijarv, EVP/Research, PQ Media

Every election cycle raises the same question: How much money will campaigns spend on advertising & marketing?

The answer has less to do with which party wins than with how competitive the races become. History has consistently shown that when elections tighten, fundraising accelerates. As campaigns compete for persuadable voters, advertising budgets grow, media markets become more valuable, and broadcasters and other media operators see increased demand for political advertising & marketing. That dynamic is shaping the 2026 midterm elections.

It has been nearly two years since I last examined the political media buying landscape for Radio Matters. Since then, the political environment has continued to evolve. Competitive races across the country, combined with changes in campaign finance rules, shifting voter sentiment and a growing number of open-seat contests, are creating conditions for what could become the largest political media buying cycles in election history.

The overriding question during the 2026 election is control of Congress – does it change hand in both chambers or will it be divided? Republicans control the Senate and the Democrats control the House. Most pundits do not believe in the status quo – Republicans controlling both chambers next year. While the balance of power in Congress remains uncertain, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: campaigns from both parties expect closely contested races and are raising more money than ever before.

Why is this important? Since PQ Media published its first Political Media Buying Report in 2004, we have consistently found that more than 75% of campaign fundraising is ultimately spent on advertising and marketing. As fundraising reaches new highs, an increase in political media buying typically follows.

Recent elections at every level—including congressional primaries, special elections and statewide contests—have already established new fundraising and spending records. OpenSecrets projects that House and Senate fundraising in 2026 will exceed 2022 levels by nearly $500 million. After analyzing data from OpenSecrets, the Federal Election Commission (FEC), OpenPolitical, The Midterm Project, Campaign Finance Digest, U.S. polling data and MoneyTalks, PQ Media estimates that fundraising across all federal, state and local races – including ballot initiatives – will approach $13 billion in 2026, approximately $1 billion higher than the 2022 midterm cycle.

That brings us to the theme of this year’s political media buying analysis: SHOW ME THE MONEY!

Trends Fueling Increased Political Advertising

Supreme Court Rulings Continue to Shape Campaign Spending

Changes in campaign finance law have significantly influenced political fundraising and advertising over the past 15 years.

The Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (FEC) reshaped political spending by allowing corporations and labor unions to make independent expenditures in support of candidates and issues. The ruling also accelerated the growth of Super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts independently of political campaigns.

More recently, the Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC further expanded fundraising opportunities by allowing political parties to coordinate more closely with their candidates. The decision gives campaigns greater flexibility in how funds are raised and allocated, increasing the resources available for advertising & marketing and voter outreach.

The ruling also has important implications for broadcasters, but not other media platforms. Historically, only candidates were qualified to purchase broadcast advertising at the Lowest Unit Charge (LUC), while political parties and Super PACs typically paid higher commercial advertising rates. Under the new ruling, political parties now have greater access to LUC pricing, changing how broadcast political advertising inventory may be purchased during election season.

Although lower advertising rates may reduce the cost of some individual placements, the broader impact is expected to be increased demand for broadcast inventory. As campaigns and political parties expand their advertising schedules, competition for premium inventory is likely to intensify, particularly during high-profile news programming, morning drive and other high-audience dayparts.

Why does this matter? Changes in campaign finance rules don’t simply affect fundraising – they influence how campaigns purchase broadcast advertising. As more organizations gain access to campaign resources and expanded buying flexibility, broadcasters can expect increased competition for political inventory throughout the election cycle.

Shifting Voter Sentiment Expands Competitive Races

Public opinion continues to evolve as voters respond to changing economic conditions, policy debates and national events. While individual polls vary, many indicate that races once viewed as relatively secure for one party have become increasingly competitive.

What makes this year different from many election cycles in the past is the rising unpopularity of the Trump administration and its policies, particularly relating to the rising inflation caused by the Iran War and tariffs, as well as ICE deportation policies & actions taken during protests. Trump’s unpopularity is trickling down to all Republican candidates at both the federal and state levels. Sentiment in Republican districts that were considered safe in any other election over the past few decades, have increasingly shifted to the Democratic Party throughout the year in 2026.  Multiple polls highlighted in the media, such as those analyzed by CNN and conducted by Fox, show the severity of the party shifts impacting the 2026 federal and state candidates.    

From a political media buying perspective, that shift is significant. As more congressional and statewide contests become competitive, campaigns typically increase fundraising, expand voter outreach efforts and invest more heavily in advertising & marketing across multiple media platforms. States and districts that might otherwise receive limited political advertising have become active media markets as campaigns seek to persuade undecided voters.

The economy is the most important issue influencing campaign messaging. Inflation, consumer prices, employment and overall economic confidence are expected to be central themes throughout the 2026 campaign season. Regardless of which party benefits politically, these issues are likely to shape campaign advertising & marketing as candidates work to connect with voters on issues that consistently rank among their highest priorities.

Why does this matter? Competitive races create competitive media buying. As campaigns seek to reach persuadable voters, fundraising increases, advertising & marketing budgets grow and additional political dollars flow into local media markets. For broadcasters, in particular, expanding competition often translates into earlier campaigns, longer advertising schedules and greater demand for political inventory.

Competitive Primaries Increase Political Media Buying

One of the biggest drivers of political advertising & marketing during the 2026 election cycle has been a higher number of competitive primary elections compared with previous election cycles. Competitive primaries have emerged in both major parties, reflecting differences in priorities, leadership and policy direction. High-profile endorsements contested nominations and open-seat opportunities have prompted campaigns to invest heavily in political media buying well before the general election begins. The result is simple: more competition creates more spending.

Unlike races featuring well-established incumbents, contested primaries require candidates to introduce themselves to voters, build name recognition and distinguish themselves from multiple opponents. Those efforts typically begin months before Election Day, extending campaign timelines and increasing fundraising and advertising & marketing expenditures.

Republican primaries have featured several closely watched contests in which endorsements from the president and ideological differences encouraged challengers to take on incumbent officeholders. Likewise, Democratic primaries have highlighted differing perspectives within the party, requiring candidates to devote additional resources to voter outreach and advertising & marketing before securing their nominations.

While every race is unique, the broader trend remains consistent. Candidates facing competitive primaries must raise more money, communicate with voters earlier and maintain advertising over a longer period than candidates running unopposed.

Why does this matter? Contested primaries lengthen the political media buyi8ng season. Instead of waiting until the general election, campaigns begin buying media months earlier, creating additional revenue opportunities for broadcasters throughout the election cycle.

Open Seats Create New Advertising Opportunities

Another significant trend shaping the 2026 election is the unusually large number of open-seat contests. There has also been a “changing-of-the-guard” during the 21^st century in which many long-time moderate incumbents from both parties have chosen not to run again.

According to Ballotpedia, more incumbents announced in 2026 that they were not seeking another term.  In the House, 58 incumbents chose not to run again, beating the previous high of 50 in 2018. In the Senate, 11 incumbents chose not to run again, beating the previous high of 10 in 2012. In some instances, the incumbent chose to run for a different office, such as a House member running for a vacant Senate seat or a Senator running for a vacant governor position. However, a majority are retiring across both parties – 15 Democrats and 16 Republican in the House and four Democrats and six Republicans in the Senate. This list does not include incumbents who have died in office, such as South Carolina Senator Graham, or those who resigned, like Georgia Representative Taylor, bringing the total vacancies from the 119th Congress to 76 new candidates in the 2026 election. These retirements and passings have created dozens of races featuring candidates who must build public awareness from the ground up rather than relying on the advantages of incumbency.

Historically, incumbents who seek reelection often require relatively modest advertising investments during primary campaigns because they already possess high name recognition and established fundraising networks. Open-seat races are different. New candidates must quickly introduce themselves to voters, define their priorities and distinguish themselves from multiple opponents. As a result, advertising & marketing becomes one of the largest investments throughout both the primary and general election campaigns.

Why does this matter? Open-seat contests almost always generate greater demand for political advertising. These contests also tend to remain competitive longer, encouraging campaigns to continue fundraising and advertising & marketing throughout the election season rather than concentrating on spending during the final weeks, creating additional opportunities for broadcasters across multiple media markets.

Voting Rights and Election Rules Continue to Shape Campaign Strategy

The final major issue influencing voter sentiment is possible changes to voting rights. This has led to an increase in political activism, which some political pundits believe will drive more individuals to vote in the general elections held in November 2026 compared with all previous mid-term election cycles. Many states have reported an increase in the number of voters during the various primary elections that have been held to date.  

The modern focus on election administration accelerated following the 2008 presidential election. As voter turnout reached historic levels and demographic shifts continued to reshape the electorate, many states revisited election procedures, voter identification requirements and election security policies, overwhelmingly in Republican-led administrations. Over the following decade, dozens of states enacted or expanded voter ID laws, while courts frequently reviewed challenges involving election administration and voting procedures.

Supporters of voter identification laws argue they strengthen election integrity and increase voter confidence. Opponents contend that such requirements can create barriers for eligible voters who lack qualifying identification, particularly impacting people of color. Regardless of perspective, voter identification has become a recurring campaign issue that candidates routinely address through advertising & marketing, debates and voter outreach.

Mail-in voting has become an increasingly prominent campaign topic. Differences in voting preferences among various groups have prompted campaigns to develop targeted messaging around absentee voting, registration deadlines and state-specific election procedures. As these issues have gained greater visibility, campaigns have invested additional resources in educating and mobilizing voters through advertising & marketing outreach.

What PQ Media finds difficult in this ongoing battle over voting rights and mail-in voting, is the lack of evidence to back up the claims of fraud. Research done by multiple government agencies and independent third parties since 2006 have shown that elections in the United States are among the safest worldwide over the last 13 election cycles since 2000.

Beyond voting procedures, campaigns must also respond to changes in the electoral map itself. Redistricting—traditionally conducted following the decennial U.S. Census—has continued to shape the competitiveness of congressional districts through legislative action and court decisions in several states. As district boundaries change, campaigns frequently reassess where fundraising and political media buying dollars can have the greatest impact. Districts viewed as increasingly competitive typically attract greater media spending, while less competitive races often receive fewer campaign resources. Election administration is no longer simply a policy issue debated in legislatures and courtrooms. It has become a regular part of campaign messaging, influencing how candidates communicate with voters and where campaigns concentrate their advertising & marketing investments.

What does this mean? Election rules influence more than how ballots are cast. They also influence campaign strategy. Changes in voting procedures, district boundaries and election laws can reshape the competitiveness of races, prompting campaigns to redirect fundraising and advertising resources into key states and media markets. For broadcasters in particular, those shifts often translate into increased political advertising activity throughout the entire political cycle, a theme that has resonated throughout this analysis.

Taken together, the trends discussed throughout this article point to one conclusion: competition is the driving force behind political advertising & marketing. Changes in campaign finance rules, competitive primaries, open-seat races, evolving voter sentiment and election administration all contribute to one common outcome – campaigns are raising more money in 2026 because they believe their elections will be closely contested than in the past. This has resulted in record-breaking fundraising during the year, which also means record-breaking investments in advertising and marketing.

For broadcasters, that creates significant opportunities. Whether campaigns are introducing new candidates, responding to shifting public opinion or competing in newly competitive congressional districts, broadcast advertising remains one of their most important tools for reaching voters. Since PQ Media’s research consistently shows that more than three-quarters of campaign fundraising is ultimately invested in advertising & marketing, record fundraising almost always translates into increased political media buying.

Why does this matter? Political advertising follows competition. As races become more competitive, campaigns raise more money, begin advertising & marketing earlier and expand their media investments. Understanding the forces driving that competition helps broadcasters and other media operators to anticipate where political media buying opportunities are likely to emerge.

In Part II, I’ll examine how much campaigns are expected to spend during the 2026 election cycle, where those dollars are likely to be invested and which states, designated market areas (DMAs) and media platforms are expected to experience the greatest political advertising activity.

Stay tuned and don’t touch that dial.