Elections 2026: Show Me the Money! (Part II)

Contributor: Dr. Leo Kivijarv, EVP/Research, PQ Media

Last week, I discussed the trends driving political media buying during the 2026 elections: record breaking fundraising; recent Supreme Court rulings; geopolitical and economic headwinds; incumbents retiring; and efforts to overturn voting rights. This week, I will provide estimates of political media buying by categories: Campaign, Medium and States/DMAs.

Total Political Media Buying

In January 2026, PQ Media prepared a preliminary political media buying estimate for the MediaPost Political Advertising Marketplace 2026 conference. At the time, we estimated $14.51 billion would be spent on political media buying during the 2026 campaign. This represented a 39% rise in spending compared with the last mid-term election in 2022. However, it also represented a 3.4% decline when compared with the 2024 election, which included the presidential campaign.

In the last six months, PQ Media monitored trends driving growth, as discussed in last week’s blog, and we have revised our estimate upward to $15.30 billion, representing a 46.3% gain compared with 2022 spending, as well as a 1.8% increase versus the 2024 spend. The latter is important to note, as positive growth during a mid-term election when compared with the previous election cycle with a presidential election cycle was not the norm during the 2010s (2014 and 2018 elections). Instead, this year’s election mirrors the 2022 election, when there was positive growth as well. However, when we wrote the 2022 report, PQ Media thought the mid-year election increase was an anomaly attributed to the impact of the pandemic, in which political parties were forced to cut spending during the 2020 election on certain media, such as experiential marketing, out-of-home and radio, due to government-mandated stay-at-home protocols from March until the election. In 2026, the difference is attributable to the growing divide between and within the two parties, as elections are getting increasingly contentious each election cycle, per analysis by the Wesleyan University Media Project.

Political advertising, including broadcast TV, cable TV, streaming video, radio, newspapers, out-of-home, internet and mobile media will be the larger of the two media sectors, reaching $11.11 billion in 2026, a 46% increase over the 2022 election. Political marketing, including direct mail, telemarketing, experiential marketing, marketing research, public relations and promotional products will rise at a slightly faster pace, estimated to register a 46.9% gain in 2026 to $3.88 billion.

It is important to note that more than 60% of all political media buying ($9.38 billion) will occur after you read this blog – starting in earnest after Labor Day. Undecided voters will begin to pay attention. Both political parties will incentivize loyal voters to go to the polls to keep/gain control of Congress and other state & local offices. As such, many political strategists believe that voter turnout will be the highest ever for a mid-term election in 2026, causing both parties to significantly increase their financial investment on political media buying.

Political Media Buying by Campaign

Senate

Currently in the 119^th Congress, the Republicans hold a 52-48 majority of seats. The Senate races are more important than House seats because election predictors, such as Cook’s Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, believe that the Democrats will pick up a few seats, but fall one seat short of a majority (50-50), requiring Vice President Vance to cast the deciding vote on deadlocked bills. Biased predictors range to a six-seat majority for the Democrats (54-46) to Republicans keeping their four-seat advantage (52-48).   

There are 35 Senate elections in 2026. Of these, 21 seats are considered “Safe,” in which one candidate leads in the polls by more than 10 percentage points, usually the incumbent candidate or party. However, there will still be political media buying in these states as the trailing candidates will spend more than the incumbents to drive name recognition and/or make clearer their positions on issues of importance to their constituents. While Senate candidates need to reach voters in every DMA in their state (and in some instances a DMA in a neighboring state), the largest DMAs to be affected include (listed alphabetically by state): Alabama – Birmingham-Anniston-Tuscaloosa, Arkansas – Little Rock-Pine Bluff, Colorado – Denver-Boulder, Delaware – Wilmington, Idaho – Boise, Illinois – Chicago, Kansas – Wichita-Hutchinson, Kentucky – Louisville, Louisiana – New Orleans, Massachusetts – Boston-Manchester, Mississippi – Jackson, New Mexico – Albuquerque-Santa Fe, Oklahoma – Oklahoma City, Oregon – Portland, Rhode Island – Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket-New Bedford, South Dakota – Sioux Falls-Mitchell, Tennessee – Nashville, Virginia – Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News-Portsmouth, West Virginia – Charleston-Huntington and Wyoming – Cheyenne-Scottsbluff.

An anomaly exists with New Jersey, in that it has no television DMA, forcing some candidates to use stations in DMAs located in neighboring states, as referenced earlier, which in this instance would be New York City and/or Philadelphia, if they choose to advertise on television. Instead, they will more likely turn to radio, which has more DMAs due to the shorter range of FM stations, which in this case would be Middlesex-Somerset-Union, Monmouth-Ocean, Morristown, Trenton, Atlantic City-Cape May and Sussex. Other races that spill over to neighboring states due to where in-state stations are located include Virginia (Washington D.C.-Hagerstown) and Kansas (Kansas City, Missouri). 

Five Senate elections are placed in the “Likely” category (7%-10% lead in the polls), with incumbents spending slightly more monies to solidify their leads than “safe” candidates, while opponents and their allies (e.g., SuperPACs) increase spend to cut into the lead. Some of the larger DMAs impacted by the influx of dollars for “Likely” candidates include: Florida – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota, Minnesota – Minneapolis-St. Paul, Montana – Missoula, Nebraska – Omaha-Council Bluffs and South Carolina – Greenville-Spartanburg-Ashville-Anderson. 

There are only three Senate campaigns that are considered “Lean” (4%-6% lead in the polls). Since January, a handful of “Likely” races tightened and became “Lean” races after the candidates were chosen during the primaries, such as Paxton in Texas, which impacted all 17 DMAs in this state, including Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston-Galveston. Another state with a “Lean” candidate is Iowa, where Des Moines-Ames will see the greatest influx of outside spending. The final Lean race is New Hampshire, which has characteristics similar to New Jersey, in that it is included in another state’s DMA, in this instance the Boston-Manchester DMA. It differs slightly from New Jersey as it has an ABC affiliate (WMUR) in Manchester, as well as Telemundo, PBS and Ion affiliates. However, viewers in New Hampshire are more likely to watch Boston channels, particularly sporting events, which have higher CPMs and thus significantly more expensive for candidates to afford. As a result, the Senate candidates might rely more heavily on the four radio DMAs: Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester, Concord (Lake Region), Manchester and Lebanon-Hanover-White River Junction.

Insane amounts of money will be poured into the remaining six “Toss-Up” Senate races (0% tie-to-3% lead in the polls), with the largest DMAs being targeted include: Alaska – Anchorage, Georgia – Atlanta, Maine – Portland-Auburn, Michigan – Detroit, North Carolina – Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill and Ohio – Cleveland-Akron-Canton.

Based on the number of Senate races and the DMAs being impacted by the most contentious races, PQ Media estimates that combined political media buying in Senate elections will reach $5.38 billion during the 2026 election cycle, which represents a 41.8% growth compared with the 2022 election cycle. Senate races will account for more than one-third (35.1% share) of total political media buying in 2026.

House of Representatives

All 210 television DMAs and 263 radio DMAs will post gains during the 2026 election cycle because all 435 seats of the House of Representatives are being contested. Currently, the Republicans have a seven-seat majority (221-214) in the 119^th Congress. Most election predictors are estimating a minimum 11-seat pick up for the Democrats in 2026, leading to a 15-seat majority (225-210). Bolder bias predictions have the Democrats picking up 21 seats (235-200), ending with a 35-seat majority, while weaker predictions call for only a six-seat shift, but still favoring the Democrats by a five-seat majority (220-215).   

Approximately 82% of the House seats are considered “Safe,” each party having nearly 180 each in this category (total 358 seats – 177 D/181 R). As such, this blog will be specific to the seats categorized as contentious (“Likely,” “Lean” and “Toss-Up”), a total of 77 seats in 29 different states, led by Florida with nine House seats that aren’t considered “Safe.”

The major difference between a House and Senate election is that media buying for a House candidate is limited to one or two DMAs within a district’s boundaries, versus a Senate candidate having to buy political media in all the DMAs within the state, such as the aforementioned need of the Texas candidates to purchase ad & marketing inventory in 17 DMAs. Although there are 12x more contentious House races than Senate seats this year, a Senate candidate spends up to 15x more money than their House brethren in the same state.

About 40% of the contentious House races would fall under the “Likely” category, with 35 of 77 seats found here. There are numerous DMAs with multiple candidates that fit this criterion, particularly in Florida, where the 7^th and 9^th districts lie in the Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne DMA, and the 12^th, 13^th and 16^th districts are found in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota DMA. Two other DMAs sharing this trait are Las Vegas (1^st & 4^th) and Cleveland-Akron-Canton (7^th & 13^th). The other “Likely” races, and the DMA most impacted, are as follows: Alabama (2) Montgomery-Selma, Alaska (-) Anchorage, Arizona (2) Phoenix-Prescott, California (21) Fresno-Visalia, Colorado (3) Grand Junction-Montrose, Colorado (5) Denver-Boulder, Connecticur (5) Hartford-New Haven-New Britain-Middletown, Florida (27)  Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Indiana (1) Chicago (Gary, Indiana), Kansas (3)  Kansas City, Missouri (Overland Park, Kansas), Kentucky (6) Lexington, Maine (2) Bangor, Minnesota (1) Rochester-Mason City-Austin, Minnesota (2) Minneapolis-St. Paul, Montana (1) Missoula, New Hampshire (2) Boston-Manchester (New London, New Hampshire), New York (1) New York City, Oregon (5) Bend, South Carolina (1) Charleston, South Carolina, Texas (23) Odessa-Midland, Texas (35) Austin, Virginia (5) Charlottesville, Virginia (7) Washington D.C.-Hagerstown (Fredericksburg, Virginia) and Wisconsin (1) Madison.

There are 24 House races under the “Lean” category. New York City is the only DMA with multiple races (3^rd & 4^th). However, this DMA also includes one New Jersey race (9^th), where the candidates might choose a radio DMA instead. There are also numerous DMAs that have multiple contentious races among the three categories, such as Las Vegas, in which the Nevada 3^rd district is also up for grabs (along with two “Likely” races referenced earlier), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota (Florida 14^th along with the three “Likely” races). Other DMAs that have two or more contentious House races, including “Toss-Ups” discussed in the next paragraph include: California (13) Fresno-Visalia, Florida (22) Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Iowa (2) Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City-Dubuque and Virginia (1) Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth. The remaining DMAs with only one race and considered to be in the “Lean” category include: California (6) Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, California (45) Los Angeles, California (48) San Diego, Michigan (4) Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek, Michigan (8) Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Nebraska (2) Omaha-Council Bluffs, New Hampshire (1) Boston-Manchester (Manchester, New Hampshire), New Mexico (2) Albuquerque-Santa Fe (Socorro, New Mexico), New York (19) Binghamton, North Carolina (1) Raleigh-Durham-Fayetteville, North Carolina (11) Greenville-Spartanburg-Ashville-Anderson, Ohio (1) Cincinnati, Pennsylvania (1) Philadelphia, Texas (15) Corpus Christi and Texas (28) Laredo.

Most eyes will follow the “Toss-Up” House races, which will generate record-breaking political media buying, as these are the most coveted seats that will determine if the Democrats will, indeed, control the House as expected, and by what majority. There are 18 “Toss-Up” House races, often in states with contentious Senate and Governor races, such as Michigan, which boasts two House “Toss-Ups” in Lansing-East Lansing (7^th) and Detroit (10^th). The New York City DMA hosts a New Jersey race in this category (New Jersey 7^th), as well as one near the city’s boundaries (New York 17^th). Pennsylvania has the most “Toss-Up” races with three, but they are all in different DMAs: Philadelphia (7^th), Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hazelton (8^th) and Harrisburg-Lancaster-Carlisle-Lebanon-York (Pennsylvania 10^th),  The remaining “Toss-Up” House races include: Arizona (1) Phoenix-Prescott, Arizona (6) Tucson-Sierra Vista, California (22) Bakersfield, Colorado (8) Denver-Boulder, Florida (25) Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Iowa (1) Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City-Dubuque, Iowa (3) Des Moines-Ames, Ohio (9) Toledo, Texas (34) Corpus Christi, Virginia (2) Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth, Wisconsin (3) La Crosse-Eau Claire and Washington (3) Portland, Oregon (Longview, Washington).

PQ Media estimates that combined political media buying on all 435 House races will reach $4.16 billion during the 2026 election cycle, which represents a 49.1% growth compared with the 2022 election cycle, a slightly higher growth rate than will posted by the Senate races. House races will account for a 27.2% share of total political media buying in 2026, and combined with Senate races, total federal elections will account for almost two-thirds (62.3% share) of total political media buying.

Governor

Radio fares better in mid-term elections than during election cycles with a presidential contest because presidential candidates rarely use the medium, whereas approximately 70% of gubernatorial seats are decided during the mid-terms, compared with 25% during presidential election cycles, which is true in 2026 with 36 elections for governor.

Similar to Senate races, gubernatorial races drive political media buying even in races considered to be in the “Safe” category. Almost two-thirds of the gubernatorial races (23) fall in this category. Also like Senate elections, gubernatorial candidates have to spend in every DMA, such as the California candidates having to allocate funds for the largest DMAs, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose and Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, as well as the other eight DMAs in the state. Numerous gubernatorial races are occurring in states and DMAs referenced earlier as contentious Senate and/or House races, such as the New York governor candidates having to advertise in the New York City DMA. The other gubernatorial races in the “Safe” category (and largest DMAs) include: Alabama – Birmingham-Anniston-Tuscaloosa, Arkansas – Little Rock-Pine Bluff, Colorado – Denver-Boulder, Connecticut – Hartford-New Haven-New Britain-Middletown, Florida – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota, Hawaii – Honolulu, Idaho – Boise, Illinois – Chicago, Massachusetts – Boston-Manchester, Maryland – Baltimore, Minnesota – Minneapolis-St. Paul, Nebraska – Omaha-Council Bluffs, Oklhoma – Oklahoma City, Pennsylvania – Philadelphia, Rhode Island – Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket-New Bedford, South Carolina – Greenville-Spartanburg-Ashville-Anderson, South Dakota – Sioux Falls-Mitchell, Tennesse – Nashville, Texas – Dallas-Fort Worth, Vermont – Burlington-Plattsburg and West Virginia – Charleston-Huntington.

Five gubernatorial races are labeled as “Likely,” including New Hampshire, referenced earlier as having candidates rely on the Boston-Manchester DMA if they wish to purchase television ad inventory other than the ABC or Telemundo affiliates in the state. The other four “Likely” governor races include: Alaska – Anchorage, Maine – Portland-Auburn, New Mexico – Albuquerque-Santa Fe and Oregon – Portland. 

Only three gubernatorial races fall in the “Lean” category: Arizona – Phoenix-Prescott, Michigan – Detroit and Nevada – Las Vegas. In each instance, the gubernatorial candidates will be facing tight broadcast advertising inventory demands because the state also includes contentious Senate and/or House races. 

Five gubernatorial races are considered to be “Toss-Ups”, most of which also have contentious Senate and/or House seats. In two instances, the Senate seats are also considered “Toss-Ups,” making ad inventory in all DMAs tight, such as Ohio – Cleveland-Akron-Canton and Georgia – Atlanta.  Gubernatorial candidates in Iowa must contend with tight television advertising in two DMAs due to “Toss-Up” House races – Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City-Dubuque and Des Moines-Ames, while the Wisconsin gubernatorial candidates have one DMA that also includes a “Toss-Up” House race – La Crosse-Eau Claire. The only “Toss-Up” gubernatorial candidates who don’t need to deal with another “Toss-Up” race is in Kansas, although those candidates do face competition for airtime with “Safe” Senate candidates in the Wichita-Hutchinson DMA and “Safe” House candidates in the Kansas City, Missouri (Overland Park, Kansas) DMA.

PQ Media estimates that candidates for the 36 gubernatorial seats will spend $3.20 billion on political media buying, resulting in a 31.9% gain over 2022 spending. Governor elections will account for 20.9% of total political media buying in 2026.

Down-Ballot Elections

Spending on other local state and city offices, labeled as “down-ballot elections,” are increasingly becoming more important as the political divide widens. In 2026, this has taken on added importance at the state level as multiple state legislations have passed gerrymandering changes to district borders ahead of the 2026 elections which will have a significant impact on the House majority. At the city level, battles for mayor have become supercharged because of the increasing presence of ICE agents that have led to protests that have turned deadly.

In past election cycles, other down-ballot offices have also been considered more important than those mentioned above, but which still play a vital role in voter turnout in 2026. At the state level, the Secretary of State has control over confirming election results, which became a big issue after the 2020 election. The State Attorney General office has also been involved in election fraud claims. State Supreme Court and Appellate Court seats receive additional attention, particularly if a seat will keep or change the majority decisions on rulings such as voter registration policies, as witnessed in a recent 2026 Michigan special election deciding the one-seat majority. At the city level, election of school board members became contentious during the last decade due to efforts to curb DEI policies, particularly relating to which books will be used in classrooms and be allowed in school libraries. 

Forty-six of the 50 states are holding state legislative elections in 2026, with Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia being the exceptions. In 42 states, elections are being held for both chambers, with the exceptions being Nebraska holding only a State Senate election, and Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina only holding State House elections. There are 1,178 State Senate seats and 4,960 State House seats being decided. According to Ballotpedia, there is an influx of funds filtering into more than half (27) of the states holding state legislative elections. In some instances, the extra dollars are being spent in hopes of shifting balance from one party to the other, while in other instances the extra dollars are being spent to prevent one party in a legislative chamber from holding a “super majority” in which bills are automatically passed if the state constitution requires a two-thirds majority. States registering the highest influx of outside monies from both parties include Michigan, Minnesota (with 67 State Senate seats, the most of any state) and Pennsylvania. States that are registering a high influx of monies from the Democrats and some money from Republicans include Arizona, New Hampshire (which has 400 State House seats, the most of any state) and Wisconsin. Twelve states have both parties investing some money, including Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Vermont and Washington. Meanwhile, there are states that only the Democrats have increased spending, with Alaska registering a high level of investment. The other eight state legislative races receiving some financial support from the Democrats include Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina. While most state legislative candidates don’t advertise on television due to the high costs, they do use other media, such as radio. They might find ad inventory to be tight if there are “Toss-Up” federal and governor elections taking place in the same coveted DMAs.

There are 37 states with elections for judges – 64 State Supreme Court vacancies, led by seven in Texas, and 243 State Appellate Court vacancies, led by 50 in California. Other state offices being decided in 2026 include 31 Lieutenant Governors, 30 Attorneys General and 27 Secretary of States, as well as 35 states holding elections for 77 other state offices, such as Agricultural Commissioner, Auditor, Board of Regents, Insurance Commissioner, Natural Resources Commissioner, Public Service Commissioner, Superintendent of Schools and Treasurer, led by Oklahoma holding elections for six of these offices.  

There are 542 mayoral elections being held in 40 states and the District of Columbia in 2026, although only nine states have more than 10 cities and towns with elections, led by California with 207 mayoral elections (no other state has over 50 elections). There are 122 cities holding mayoral elections with populations exceeding 100,000, with Los Angeles being the only city with over one million people. California leads with 55 large cities holding these elections, many of which are in the Los Angeles DMA, thereby tightening ad inventory even more.  According to Ballotpedia, Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Arlington, Texas, mayoral races have seen the greatest influx of outside monies.

There are 30 states holding at least one board of education election, with a total of 1,175 cities and towns across the country having these elections, led by Wisconsin with 430 municipalities. Additionally, there are other city office elections in 2026, such as board of supervisors, circuit & county judges, city assemblies & councils, city & county commissioners, sheriffs and tax assessors & collectors. There are 164 such elections being held in 47 states and the District of Columbia, led by California with 29 cities. Candidates in these types of races almost exclusively use radio, out-of-home media, direct mail and telemarketing.    

Combined political media buying on all down-ballot elections is expected to reach $1.38 billion in 2026, representing a 75.5% increase in spending compared with 2026. Down-ballot elections will account for 9% of total political media buying in 2026.

Ballot Initiatives  

Ballot initiatives, also known as ballot measures, can sometimes be considered “race drivers” because of the controversial nature of the ballot initiative that will drive voters to the polls, which in turn helps candidates in contentious races that support/do not support those ballot measure. There are 39 states that have at least one initiative on state ballots in 2026, with a total of 149 being voted upon, a slight decrease from the 159 ballot initiatives in 2024, and slightly up from the 140 ballot measures in 2022. Only four states have more than 10 ballot initiatives, led by Louisiana with 15. Over 60% of the ballot measures are called “Legislative Referred Constitutional Amendments (LRCA),” which are usually minor issues like adding a new agency, like economic development or address a financial issue like creating a new bond to generate revenue to help pay for teacher raises. However, there are race drivers hidden in some of these LRCAs, such as the state’s voter ID policy (although some of the race drivers can be found in other types of ballot initiatives, like Indirect Initiated State Statues). There are 35 ballot measures that would be considered race drivers. Initiatives concerning voting rights, such as citizenship voting requirements, are listed on 14 ballots. Ballot measures relating to DEI, including transgender sports participation and LGBTQ+ rights, are found in nine states. Healthcare provisions are addressed four times.  Race drivers in previous elections that are not as important in 2026 include abortion rights, only on three state ballots, and marijuana laws, being decided in only two states.

Political media buying on ballot initiatives is expected to reach $1.18 billion in 2026, the first time this election category has ever exceeded $1 billion. It represents a 79.1% increase over 2022 spending and will account for a 7.7% share of total political media buying.       

Political Media Buying by Media Platform

Broadcast television remains the elephant in the room, accounting for 37.5% of all political media buying, or $5.74 billion, representing a 36.2% increase over the 2022 election. This is occurring despite lower viewership, with Nielsen’s The Gauge reporting that broadcast television accounted for only 19.2% of all video viewers in May 2026, down from a 22.3% share in May 2024 and 24.4% share in May 2022. The major reason the medium still resonates with candidates, and conversely with voters, is its ties to the local communities it serves, whereas Cable TV and Streaming Video are primarily national media with the ability to technologically insert local advertising with fewer viewers per program. Streaming Video, however, posted the strongest growth of the 14 media platforms PQ Media covers, surging by 96.4% in 2026 compared with 2022 to $1.36 billion. Because Cable TV is home to more live sports telecasts than Broadcast TV, it posted a faster growth rate, rising 40.9% to $1.21 billion, which marks 2026 as the first year that Streaming Video spend exceeded Cable TV. When all three video options are combined, they represent more than half (54.3%) of all political media buying at $8.31 billion.

Mobile Media is becoming more popular with campaigns, reaching $1.01 billion in 2026, the first time it has exceeded $1 billion in year, up 70.3% compared with 2022. Candidates still use Internet Media, as it posted a 43.1% gain in 2026 to $737 million. Total digital political media buying reached $1.74 billion, 4x less than what is being spent on video advertising. Two reasons exist for this. First, digital media is cheaper – there is the old adage that for every dollar spent on traditional media, it takes only a dime to have the same reach on the internet and a penny on mobile media. Second, the major use of digital media is fundraising via e-mails, texts and the candidate’s websites.

Turning to marketing media, Direct Mail remains the second largest medium used by candidates, reaching $2.36 billion, representing a 46% gain in 2026. During the 2010s, candidates were shifting away from this medium, but the 2020 pandemic caused them to use it more, at which time they once again discovered the excellent return on investment (ROI) it provided at a relatively low price point. The fastest growing marketing medium is public relations, rising 87.6% in 2026 compared with 2022 spending, to $319 million, with candidates turning to popular political influencers to fuel growth in this medium. Given the debacle of the 2016 election, in which Clinton was heavily favored to beat Trump in all polls, candidates are turning to more personalized market research, as Trump did in 2016, to help develop messages that resonate with voters. This has resulted in Marketing Research rising 69.1% in 2026 compared with 2022 to $367 million. Meanwhile, candidates examined Harris’ run for president in 2024 to see how holding rallies helped with fundraising, which helps explain why Experiential Marketing will jump 59.4% in 2026, compared with 2022, to $298 million. Due to the success of Trump hawking logo-embossed products, like MAGA hats, campaigns are investing more in promotional products, which will rise at a 56.6% rate in 2026 to $119 million. Telemarketing also remains a viable tool, as political polling is allowed under the “Do Not Call” registry. It will reach $421 million in 2026, a 48.2% increase compared with 2022.

Of the three remaining advertising media not yet discussed, Out-of-Home Media will increase 55.7% in 2026, compared with 2022, to $271 million, fueled by candidates using digital out-of-home screens more often. Newspapers is the smallest of the 14 media covered by PQ Media at $148 million, representing a 31% gain in 2026, also the lowest growth rate of the 14 media platforms.

Which leaves Radio and where it fits. In-car digital options are shifting how Americans engage and consume audio content. Broadcast Radio (over-the-air) listening and other audio options can be consumed by in-car apps and streams. Similar to TV and video options, Americas have numerous ways to access the audio content they want. Yet, radio remains resilient, rising 43.6% in 2026, compared with 2022 spending, to $945 million, with much of the growth attributable to podcasting and the digital extensions of radio stations. Radio’s greatest strength is its ability to reach minority voters, as both Hispanic and African American listeners over-index in the amount of time they spend with this medium according to Nielsen’s data on minorities, as well as Edison’s quarterly Share of Ear reports. For example, in a presentation I made at Radio Ink Hispanic Radio Conference 2026 in May 2026, I highlighted 17 DMAs, and four states with a large Hispanic population that had contentious races, such as Austin, Texas, Bakersfield, California, Las Vegas, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. Additionally, as this blog was being written, research firm Digital Remedy released a survey report in late July 2026 that states that political ads on radio, particularly on podcasts, extend the reach for campaigns because voters are becoming frustrated with the saturation of political ads on television that they tune out the messages, which wouldn’t happen on radio.               

Political Media Buying by States & DMAs

To be clear, this analysis will not estimate actual political media buying by state or DMA (e.g., Maine will generate $XXX Million or New York City will reach $XXX Million in 2026). Rather, this analysis is specific to the states and DMAs that will have tight advertising & marketing inventory due to a high number of races, including many that are contentious, particularly multiple “Toss-Up” elections, thus generating more money than neighboring states and DMAs with fewer contentious races, if any.

The methodology used to determine which states and DMAs will over-index, priority was given to federal and gubernatorial races, with “Toss-Ups” given the highest score and “Safe” elections the lowest score. Down-ballot state races were given priority over ballot initiatives and important city races, with points added based on information gleaned from multiple sources, like Ballotpedia and PQ Media’s Global Opinion Leader Panel™, some of which was referenced earlier in this blog.   

States

Ten states stand out for multiple contentious races and/or a high number of races being held simultaneously. Ohio ranks first and Michigan is second, both fueled by “Toss-Up” Senate and Governor races, as well as one “Toss-Up” House race. Ohio has more judge seats and ballot initiatives than Michigan, which helped it gain the higher rank. Georgia ranks third, with many of the same characteristics, except no “Toss-Up” House election. California ranks fourth, with no “Toss-Up” elections other than a House race in the Bakerfield DMA. Rather, its inventory will be tight due to the high number of elections as referenced earlier, like 207 mayoral races, including Los Angeles, and 98 school boards elections. In fifth place is Iowa, with a “Toss-Up” gubernatorial race, two “Toss-Up” House seats and the Senate race rated as a “Lean.” Arizona, Texas, Kansas and Wisconsin take the next four spots, most with at least one federal or gubernatorial “Toss-Up” election. New Hampshire finished 10^th based on the high number (400) of State House races, which is almost double second-place Pennsylvania (203). States that rank the lowest, such as Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah, don’t have any federal or gubernational contentious races, and very few, if any state and city elections.     

DMAs

To be consistent, PQ Media used Nielsen’s TV data with 210 markets rather than its radio data with 263 markets because it was easier to pinpoint the area of dominate influence (ADI), the major city within the DMA, such New York City in the New York DMA, that also includes Long Island, nearby New York counties, like Westchester, northern New Jersey and southwest Connecticut. In the radio data, southwest Connecticut, Long Island and northern New Jersey are separated from the NYC DMA. Another point of clarification concerns the DMAs in states with no or few television stations: New Jersey and New Hampshire. Contentious races, as well as down-ballot races, were given only half credit in the three DMAs of note: New York City, Philadelphia and Boston-Manchester.

This is a perfect segway to the rankings, as Boston-Manchester, ranked first in the DMAs that are expected to over-index, some of which is attributable to the vast number of elections and handful of contentious races in New Hampshire, but also includes numerous elections in Massachusetts. The remaining DMAs that ranked in the Top 10 are located in states referenced earlier that scored high in the state index, with contentious “Toss Up” House races fueling their rankings over other DMAs in those states. Two of Arizona’s three DMAs – Phoenix-Prescott and Tucson-Sierra Vista – ranked second and fifth in the DMA over-index rankings, respectively. Two of Florida’s nine DMAs – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota – ranked third and ninth, respectively. Michigan placed three of its seven DMAs in the Top 10 – Lansing-East Lansing, Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek and Detroit – ranked seventh, eighth and tenth, respectively. The remaining two DMAs in the Top 10 rankings are Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City-Dubuque, which has two continuous House races, one of which is a “Toss-Up,” as well as a “Toss-Up” Iowa gubernatorial election, which led to its fourth-place ranking; and Los Angeles, which ranked sixth, and includes a contentious mayoral race in the city of Los Angeles, as well as more than two dozen mayoral elections in cities within the DMA’s boundaries with populations over 100,000, a House election ranked in the “Lean” category, and high number of California state judicial and school board elections. DMAs in the Bottom 10 were in three states with very few elections in 2026 other than “Safe” House seats: Virginia has the bottom three DMAs: Harrisonburg, Richmond-Petersburg and Roanoke-Lynchburg; Louisiana has the next bottom three DMAs: Baton Rouge,  Lafayette and New Orleans; and Mississippi finishes the Bottom 10 with four DMAs: Biloxi-Gulfport-Pascagoula, Greenwood-Greenville, Hattiesburg-Laurel and Meridian (if I expanded it to a Bottom 12 ranking, Mississippi would have had two additional DMAs).       

For additional information, see PQ Media’s Political Media Buying 2026.

Final Thoughts

When PQ Media published Political Media Buying 2004, its first of 12 editions of the report published every two years, campaigns spent $2.75 billion to reach voters, which was more than double spent during 2000 election, which reached $1.22 billion. That increase was fueled by the expansion of the political divide, as many voters were displeased with the outcome of the 2000 presidential election when the Supreme Court became involved in the Florida hanging chads controversy, as well as the 2003 invasion of Iraq based on misinformation about weapons of mass destruction. In 2026 dollars, taking into account 22 years of inflation, campaigns spent the equivalent $4.86 billion in the 2004 election, more than 3x less than what was spent in 2024 and will be spent in 2026.

Controversial elections and policies have led to major jumps in political media buying this century. After the first Trump presidency, political media buying almost doubled from $6.76 billion in 2018 to $10.14 billion in 2020, which would have been even higher if not for the pandemic. There was another $5 billion jump between the 2022 and 2024 elections, when record-high inflation and his age doomed the Biden/Harris administration in the eyes of Republicans and many independent voters, while Trump’s second effort to be president and controversial Supreme Court rulings favoring conservative views caused a substantial increase in Democratic fundraising.      

Which makes me ponder the following: Will something of great importance happen over the next two years that will cause political media buying to exceed $20 billion when PQ Media publishes its 13^th edition of Political Media Buying in 2028? Tempted to once again say, “Show Me the Money” and “Don’t Touch that Dial.”